I kept my previous blog post, “The Business Of Virtual Worlds,” intentionally generic so it could be read and understood by [hopefully] everyone across the general topic of virtual worlds. I want people to understand how a lifelike virtual world fits into the grand scheme of our digital futures. But that left a void where I wanted to discuss my experiences and the approach I’ve taken with Bending Time, which I am addressing here.
To me, it’s plain as day, a lifelike virtual world is going to play a significant part of our future daily lives. We will conduct most of our online activities in a true-to-life digital rendition of our world because it will feel familiar and comfortable to the majority of the population. Where possible, it will enable organizations to conduct their business in a similar way to the physical world. The popularity of fantasy virtual worlds will certainly increase over time, but it will remain limited to a smaller minority of the overall global population. I’m not denigrating these worlds, fill your boots, I just don’t think they will become as widely used as a lifelike virtual world.
Bending Time is going to capture the lifelike virtual world market by starting with the monetization of real-world simulator games as a beachhead and grow into other markets from there. Ultimately, working towards a global-scale lifelike virtual world.
Innovator’s Dilemma
When I first read Clayton Christensen’s “Innovator’s Dilemma,” I felt I really learned something about the business world. It really piqued my interest. In the years that followed, as an innovator, I witnessed the dilemma firsthand in my corporate job. Large corporations cater to their current customers and processes, and struggle to break out of that mold to create a new product for new customers and/or in a new market. MBA managers are taught to effectively not do this. Execute to the known quantity, stay on target, etc. This was recently brought to light in Paul Graham’s “Founder Mode” essay.
Planet-Scale
From my experiences on various projects, mainly the radar simulator, I firmly believe that a planet-wide virtual world is where the real innovation is. There were problems that I could see back then that, if solved, would open up new opportunities. The trouble is, as I discussed in my previous blog post, you don’t need to model the whole planet for most business cases. If you want to create a 3D virtual mine site, for example, gather maps for that area and build the virtual site for just that region. Want to do a 3D mashup for a new capital development? Pull in the data you need just for that area and away you go. The problem comes when the cost per project is repeated. This is where the planet-wide virtual world “solves a problem.” However, individual customers don’t want to pay for you to solve the planet-scale problems.
To help illustrate the challenges, a very large game world today could be 100 km x 100 km. However, if you are in a flight simulator, you can see for almost a thousand kilometers in any direction! It’s a whole ‘nother scale. And the approach to building the planet-wide lifelike virtual world is very different compared to the approach to building a video game.
Business Cases
Here are a few business cases to help understand the potential of the lifelike virtual world.
Driver’s Ed: There are 2 million new drivers each year in the US, and schools still use static PDFs (hard copies even!) to teach them how to be safe on the road. An accessible lifelike virtual world, putting young drivers in virtual traffic, could easily be monetized. “But Sean, there will be no drivers once the world shifts to self-driving vehicles.” Self-driving vehicles will roll out in key areas, but us humans will be driving for a long time still.
Online Simulator Training: Early on, I worked with a marine captain who was very interested in setting up his own school to teach students. He was very excited for the possibility for him to share his years of knowledge potentially with students across the globe. He loved the idea of Bending Time supporting his passion. The problem came down to who will fund this? Marine training schools had zero interest.
Visualizations: Some time later I managed to join the team of an engineering company who was bidding on a new greenway project for the City of Vancouver. I pitched the idea of developing a virtual environment for the greenway and making a VR experience for the public. They would be able to hop on a virtual version of the proposed streetcar and ride down the greenway. They loved it! However, the funds never materialized, and the government changed hands and cancelled the project.
Virtual Tourism: I spoke with a couple of social coordinators at senior living homes about the possibility of the residents using VR to visit various destinations around the virtual globe. It would provide an opportunity to keep their minds active when their bodies may not permit as much. They loved it! In fact, Rendever continues to forge a path for this business case today. However, it turns out we don’t really care enough about our elders to pay for this. It’s sad. One day, we’ll be able to feed their mind’s hunger and keep them happy as possible in their final years.
This may all sound like me lamenting the fact I wasn’t able to close a deal, and maybe it is to some extent, but there’s a real point to be made here. But before I make this point, I need to address the “right way to do things.”
The Textbook Approach
The textbook approach to startups is to first discover a customer’s pain points and then build to alleviate those. Paul Graham has been giving this advice to Y Combinator enrollees for decades. It is widely accepted as the way to get things done in the startup world. And for any incremental startup, which probably account for more than 90% of all of them, I would agree. However, there are some startups where the market is clear, it’s just a lot of work to build. We often refer to these as moonshots. For example, did Sam Altman “prove the market” before embarking on his OpenAI journey? No, of course not. Did Blake Scholl get customer letters of intent before even considering launching Boom Supersonic? He may have got LOIs but that would’ve been lip service for someone else. As I tweeted, “you gotta love supersonic jets to invest in supersonic jets.” The point is the lifelike virtual world, ultimately, the metaverse, may be one of the last big moonshots in software.
The lifelike virtual world is the moonshot that ultimately opens the door to the 3D metaverse.
Games
Through my trials and tribulations on Bending Time, I learned the gaming industry is still one of the best markets to launch and have users adopt new technology. This is why I plan to start with simulator games, despite the market size being smaller.
The "minimum viable product" for Bending Time is a 3D Earth that showcases video game elements including video game-quality terrain, massive forest rendering and dynamic ocean rendering. The user will be able to fly around the planet from space to surface enjoying the beauty of the natural world.
The planet-wide technology and prototypes are mature enough such that, with the investment described on Bending Time’s Investors page, there are sufficient resources to launch the initial showcase app.
The possible simulation games being considered after launch include:
Conclusion
For all the reasons discussed above, I cannot rely on a “customer’s problem” in order to take this moonshot. The incremental path of going from one small project to another in hopes of amassing enough fuel to go to the moon is just not viable. The technology is ready, there are enough business cases to prepare the ship, I just need some fuel and a small crew and we’re off!
To me, it’s plain as day, a lifelike virtual world is going to play a significant part of our future daily lives. We will conduct most of our online activities in a true-to-life digital rendition of our world because it will feel familiar and comfortable to the majority of the population. Where possible, it will enable organizations to conduct their business in a similar way to the physical world. The popularity of fantasy virtual worlds will certainly increase over time, but it will remain limited to a smaller minority of the overall global population. I’m not denigrating these worlds, fill your boots, I just don’t think they will become as widely used as a lifelike virtual world.
Bending Time is going to capture the lifelike virtual world market by starting with the monetization of real-world simulator games as a beachhead and grow into other markets from there. Ultimately, working towards a global-scale lifelike virtual world.
Innovator’s Dilemma
When I first read Clayton Christensen’s “Innovator’s Dilemma,” I felt I really learned something about the business world. It really piqued my interest. In the years that followed, as an innovator, I witnessed the dilemma firsthand in my corporate job. Large corporations cater to their current customers and processes, and struggle to break out of that mold to create a new product for new customers and/or in a new market. MBA managers are taught to effectively not do this. Execute to the known quantity, stay on target, etc. This was recently brought to light in Paul Graham’s “Founder Mode” essay.
Planet-Scale
From my experiences on various projects, mainly the radar simulator, I firmly believe that a planet-wide virtual world is where the real innovation is. There were problems that I could see back then that, if solved, would open up new opportunities. The trouble is, as I discussed in my previous blog post, you don’t need to model the whole planet for most business cases. If you want to create a 3D virtual mine site, for example, gather maps for that area and build the virtual site for just that region. Want to do a 3D mashup for a new capital development? Pull in the data you need just for that area and away you go. The problem comes when the cost per project is repeated. This is where the planet-wide virtual world “solves a problem.” However, individual customers don’t want to pay for you to solve the planet-scale problems.
To help illustrate the challenges, a very large game world today could be 100 km x 100 km. However, if you are in a flight simulator, you can see for almost a thousand kilometers in any direction! It’s a whole ‘nother scale. And the approach to building the planet-wide lifelike virtual world is very different compared to the approach to building a video game.
Business Cases
Here are a few business cases to help understand the potential of the lifelike virtual world.
Driver’s Ed: There are 2 million new drivers each year in the US, and schools still use static PDFs (hard copies even!) to teach them how to be safe on the road. An accessible lifelike virtual world, putting young drivers in virtual traffic, could easily be monetized. “But Sean, there will be no drivers once the world shifts to self-driving vehicles.” Self-driving vehicles will roll out in key areas, but us humans will be driving for a long time still.
Online Simulator Training: Early on, I worked with a marine captain who was very interested in setting up his own school to teach students. He was very excited for the possibility for him to share his years of knowledge potentially with students across the globe. He loved the idea of Bending Time supporting his passion. The problem came down to who will fund this? Marine training schools had zero interest.
Visualizations: Some time later I managed to join the team of an engineering company who was bidding on a new greenway project for the City of Vancouver. I pitched the idea of developing a virtual environment for the greenway and making a VR experience for the public. They would be able to hop on a virtual version of the proposed streetcar and ride down the greenway. They loved it! However, the funds never materialized, and the government changed hands and cancelled the project.
Virtual Tourism: I spoke with a couple of social coordinators at senior living homes about the possibility of the residents using VR to visit various destinations around the virtual globe. It would provide an opportunity to keep their minds active when their bodies may not permit as much. They loved it! In fact, Rendever continues to forge a path for this business case today. However, it turns out we don’t really care enough about our elders to pay for this. It’s sad. One day, we’ll be able to feed their mind’s hunger and keep them happy as possible in their final years.
This may all sound like me lamenting the fact I wasn’t able to close a deal, and maybe it is to some extent, but there’s a real point to be made here. But before I make this point, I need to address the “right way to do things.”
The Textbook Approach
The textbook approach to startups is to first discover a customer’s pain points and then build to alleviate those. Paul Graham has been giving this advice to Y Combinator enrollees for decades. It is widely accepted as the way to get things done in the startup world. And for any incremental startup, which probably account for more than 90% of all of them, I would agree. However, there are some startups where the market is clear, it’s just a lot of work to build. We often refer to these as moonshots. For example, did Sam Altman “prove the market” before embarking on his OpenAI journey? No, of course not. Did Blake Scholl get customer letters of intent before even considering launching Boom Supersonic? He may have got LOIs but that would’ve been lip service for someone else. As I tweeted, “you gotta love supersonic jets to invest in supersonic jets.” The point is the lifelike virtual world, ultimately, the metaverse, may be one of the last big moonshots in software.
The lifelike virtual world is the moonshot that ultimately opens the door to the 3D metaverse.
Games
Through my trials and tribulations on Bending Time, I learned the gaming industry is still one of the best markets to launch and have users adopt new technology. This is why I plan to start with simulator games, despite the market size being smaller.
The "minimum viable product" for Bending Time is a 3D Earth that showcases video game elements including video game-quality terrain, massive forest rendering and dynamic ocean rendering. The user will be able to fly around the planet from space to surface enjoying the beauty of the natural world.
The planet-wide technology and prototypes are mature enough such that, with the investment described on Bending Time’s Investors page, there are sufficient resources to launch the initial showcase app.
The possible simulation games being considered after launch include:
- A VR experience of the overview effect
- A flying app through the Alps
- A boating experience in the Great Bear Rainforest
- A virtual train ride through the Rockies
Conclusion
For all the reasons discussed above, I cannot rely on a “customer’s problem” in order to take this moonshot. The incremental path of going from one small project to another in hopes of amassing enough fuel to go to the moon is just not viable. The technology is ready, there are enough business cases to prepare the ship, I just need some fuel and a small crew and we’re off!